Rose · Theory of Constraints · Working Plan
The full logic chain from goal to launch: Goal Tree, Current Reality, the conflict we evaporated, the Future Reality Tree with its negative branches, and the sequenced project plan with decision gates. One rule governs everything here: work the constraint, and only the constraint.
Status, Aug 24: 5 Axis agreement SIGNED (deep term-sheet review + medicine pricing outstanding — Trevor). Oct 1 launch proceeds as-is, not contingent on the next $100K. Rebrand pending — the company won't stay "Join Rose" (working name: Protocol); name and domain now gate the funnel build. Execution lives in ClickUp → Protocol → Rose Launch — Constraint Plan.
Step 1 · Goal Tree
Read top-down with necessity logic: in order to have the Goal, we must have each Critical Success Factor. Every entity is a state of being, not an action. The model (v11) is the gold standard for all numbers.
THE GOAL — By Month 12 from launch, Rose is a profitable, exit-track telemedicine company in menopausal metabolic health: ~$13M+ first-year revenue, ~12,500+ active patients, EBITDA-positive by mid-year, powered by a completed $1M+ raise — with the $300K already raised preserved as buffer.
Step 2 · Current Reality → Step 3 · The Cloud
Holding the Goal Tree against reality on Aug 23 exposed seven gaps, and every cause-and-effect chain converged on three root causes: the unsigned 5 Axis agreement, capital frozen as buffer, and a deck that contradicted the model. They interlocked — can't spend before signing, won't sign before raising, can't raise on a falsifiable deck. The constraint wasn't money or a vendor; it was an unresolved decision loop. Two of three root causes died by decision: 5 Axis signed Aug 24, and the buffer no longer blocks spending. The third — the deck — was rebuilt Aug 23 and is now in founders' hands for the equity-terms confirmation before it goes to the nine investors in diligence.
Step 4 · Future Reality Tree
Read bottom-up: if injection, then effect. Each was checked for negative branches — the side effects are listed in the risk watchlist, each with a mitigation task in the plan.
| Injection | Effect it produces |
|---|---|
| I-1 Sign 5 Axis (✅ done Aug 24) with continuity terms reviewed | Async care is deliverable: doctors + Rx software + pharmacy |
| I-2 Model v11 + deck rebuilt (<12 slides, disruption-led, injectable-testosterone story, aligned numbers) | $100K closes in ~14 days; raise credibly continues to ~$1.2M total |
| I-3 September build month: brand / site / funnel live on 5 Axis rails; intake flags HRT-eligible patients from day one | Ads have somewhere to send patients Oct 1; upsell list accumulates from the first patient |
| I-4 Oct 1 launch, async-only: $45K spend (Meta $10K · CTV $25K · Google $10K) | First revenue in October; channel CACs proven before real money deploys |
| I-5 Nov $350K → Dec $400K, committed only through Gate G2 (CAC actuals + capital in hand) | Patient base compounds toward the 12-month goal — the back-loaded months do the work |
| I-6 Trevor & Gabriel build the HRT network in parallel; podcasts booked Oct, air at HRT launch (~Dec/Jan) | HRT lane opens Month 3–4; flagged async patients convert on day one; blended LTV reaches $5,365 |
Channel-level CACs (CTV guaranteed $300 · Meta ~$300 · Google $700 → $500 → $250) blend to roughly $343 → $309 → $293 over the first three months — higher than the model's $240, but payback stays under ~3.3 months against $103 contribution per active month, and LTV/CAC holds near 17×. Directional 12-month simulation (confirmed by model v11):
| Mo | Ad spend | New patients | Actives (end) | Revenue | Net cash flow | Cumulative cash* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct | 45,000 | ~180 | 180 | 20K | −94K | 306K |
| Nov | 350,000 | ~1,230 | 1,400 | 180K | −364K | −58K |
| Dec | 400,000 | ~1,510 | 2,860 | 484K | −285K | −343K |
| Jan | ~410,000 | ~1,560 | 4,300 | 814K | −168K | −511K |
| Feb | ~408,500 | ~1,610 | 5,740 | 1.14M | −27K | −538K ← trough |
| Mar | ~417,500 | ~1,710 | 7,220 | 1.47M | +110K | −428K |
| Jun | 400,000 | ~3,930 | 14,240 | 2.84M | +655K | +887K |
| Sep | 400,000 | ~1,610 | 18,160 | 4.03M | +1.27M | +4.29M |
*Cumulative cash shown from a $400K start ($300K raised + first $100K). 12-month revenue lands near $20M+ — comfortably past the goal — but the plan is cash-negative to a trough of ~−$538K in Month 5. Total capital required: ~$940K for a zero floor, ~$1.19M to keep a $250K floor. This is why the $1M+ raise target and Gate G2 exist: the Nov $350K commit is only made with ~$1.2M total capital secured.
Step 5 · Prerequisite Tree → Project Plan
Every obstacle became an intermediate objective; the objectives are sequenced on the critical chain. Only four things are on the critical path to first revenue — everything else runs parallel or waits.
| When | What | Owner |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ Aug 24 | 5 Axis SIGNED. Remaining: Trevor's deep term-sheet review + medicine pricing from 5 Axis (drives the 30% COGS assumption); move the $5/patient support cost under the agreement. | Trevor |
| ✅ Aug 23–24 | Model v11 built (October anchor, committed media plan, ~$1.2M capital req.) — with Trevor for review. Deck v2 rebuilt: 11 slides + appendix, injectable-testosterone story leads, 5 Axis CEO off the team slide. Founders confirm equity terms ($1.2M at $5M post = 24%) before wide send. | Max + Trevor |
| By Sept 5 | Brand decision: new name + domain (rebrand from Join Rose; working name Protocol). Gates the funnel build; cascades to deck links, emails, ad accounts, podcast promo codes. | Max + Trevor |
| Sept 1–7 | Close the next $100K with the corrected deck (9 investors already in diligence). Raise continues toward ~$1.2M total — hard deadline is G2 (Oct 28). | Max |
| Sept (all month) | Build month. 5 Axis onboarding (Trevor + Gabriel) · brand/site/funnel with tracking (Trevor + Idan) · HRT-eligibility flagging in intake (Trevor + Gabriel) · CTV deal papered — guarantee structure, attribution incl. the CTV→Google halo, $300K/mo cap terms (Max + Trevor) · ad accounts, pixels, creative + TikTok farm (Idan + Trevor + Jorge) · first hires ($40K/mo staged). | per item |
| Sept (parallel) | HRT workstream kickoff: medical director search, DEA-registered physician recruiting, training program (Gabriel's clinical education), telehealth-testosterone legal review, malpractice, injectable pharmacy sourcing. | Trevor + Gabriel |
| G1 · Sept 26 | Launch-readiness gate: funnel converts end-to-end, payments live, tracking verified, creative approved, CTV contract signed. Pass → launch Oct 1. Slip tolerance: Oct 15 drop-dead before podcast booking cascades. | All |
| Oct 1 | LAUNCH Async lane live — proceeds as-is, not contingent on new capital. $45K: Meta $10K · CTV $25K · Google $10K. Trevor runs the launch; Max sets the proof-month expectation with co-founders and investors: ~150–200 patients is success, not a flop. | Trevor / Max |
| Early–mid Oct | Book podcasts (SHE MD, Well Beyond 40, Everyday Wellness, Bossticks) for Dec/Jan air — 4–8 week lead times put booking on the critical path even though airing waits for HRT. | Trevor |
| G2 · Oct 28 | Scale gate for Nov's $350K: (a) blended CAC ≤ ~$325 actual, (b) total capital ≥ ~$1.2M, (c) 5 Axis fulfillment SLAs holding. Any miss → hold spend flat, fix, retest in 2 weeks. | All |
| Nov | $350K spend (CTV $300K on guarantee). HRT network finalized: physicians credentialed & trained, protocols legal-reviewed, malpractice bound. | Max / T+G |
| G3 · Nov 25 | HRT go/no-go: network ready, DEA rule status confirmed, podcast air dates locked. Pass → open Dec 15. | T+G |
| Dec | $400K spend. HRT lane opens Dec 15 (buffer to Jan 15). Podcasts air. Flagged async patients get the day-one HRT upsell. App retention features live before Month 3 if ready. | All |
| G4 · Dec 31 | DEA flexibilities expire. If the Special Registration final rule isn't in effect: switch to fallback (in-person referral partners, per deck posture) without pausing the async lane. Gabriel owns the rule watch and briefs the team. | Gabriel |
| Jan 2027 → | Scale per model v11. Monthly constraint review: "where is the constraint now?" | All |
Negative Branches
Fourth temporary extension runs through Dec 31, 2026; Special Registration final rule still pending. Mitigation lives inside the HRT build: special-registration readiness, in-person referral fallback, monthly rule-status check (G4). Owner: Gabriel, briefing Max + Trevor.
The plan needs ~$1.2M total capital for a $250K floor. G2 exists so the $350K November commit is never made on hope. If the raise stalls, spend holds at October levels — the goal slips, the company doesn't.
Terms as understood Aug 24: ~1,000 sales/mo at $300 CAC, spend capped at $300K/mo, lower spend still gets the rate. Get it in the contract in September: pay-per-acquisition vs. make-good/rebate, attribution definition (CTV also lifts Google — the halo needs attribution language), cap terms, exit rights. A make-good refunds media; it doesn't refund the month of runway.
If blended monthly churn exceeds 4% (or async cohorts pace below 16-month lifetimes), the LTV math and the month-5 trough both move against us. Early-warning tracking from month 1 (Trevor): cohort reorder rates, cancellations, refill adherence — a breach flags immediately and becomes the constraint to solve.
The name/domain decision gates the funnel build and cascades into deck links, emails, ad accounts, and podcast promo codes. Decide by Sept 5; meanwhile the deck can go to the nine investors in diligence under the current brand — just don't buy creative or promo codes under the old name.
One dispute or failure hits all three at once. Mitigations: deep term-sheet review post-signature (Trevor); the own HRT network build doubles as the hedge; CEO removed from the advisor slide. Open question: protocol authorship rights under the vendor relationship — resolve in writing.
$45K at ~$343 blended CAC ≈ 130–180 patients in October. Set that expectation with co-founders and investors in advance so a controlled proof month never reads as a miss.
The Constraint Moves
A constraint broken is a constraint relocated. The monthly review question is always the same: what single factor most limits the rate of reaching the goal right now?
| Period | Likely constraint | What "exploit & elevate" means then |
|---|---|---|
| Now → Sept | Integration & build time (5 Axis onboarding, funnel) | Daily standups on the build; nothing else gets founder attention |
| Oct | Capital (the G2 requirement) | Raise is the CEO's #1 job; everything else delegates |
| Nov → Jan | HRT clinician capacity + regulatory posture | Trevor & Gabriel's network build; G3/G4 discipline |
| 2027 | Acquisition cost / market response | Channel diversification, podcast flywheel, retention → LTV elevation |